See Farther, Go Further.

In an era defined by rapid technological evolution and increasing demands for sustainability, industries face unprecedented challenges in accurately forecasting the adoption of emerging technologies. Traditional linear forecasting methods often fail to capture the exponential growth and critical inflection points characteristic of innovations, making S-curve analysis an indispensable tool for strategic foresight.

This whitepaper explores how S-curve analysis—traditionally a project management tool—can be reframed as a strategic lens to assess the evolution of technologies from inception to maturity. By mapping adoption trajectories, organizations gain visibility into key pivot points for capital allocation, timing of market entry, and dynamic portfolio rebalancing.

By embracing S-curve analysis as a proactive strategic asset, companies can better anticipate market dynamics, optimize resource allocation, and secure a competitive edge by being nimbler in a rapidly evolving business landscape.

Introduction
Why 'S-Curve' is important in 2025
Technology adoption using the S-Curve model
The Carbon Capture technology S-Curve
S-Curve analysis as a strategic asset
Recommendations
Action Steps
Glossary
Data Sources

Understanding the S-Curve Trajectory: The S-curve illustrates the typical trajectory of technology or product adoption, as shown in Figure 1. —from early-stage innovation to mainstream saturation. It begins with the early phase, where ideas are nascent and recognized only by a handful of experts. As these ideas gain visibility, interest and excitement build, sparking early momentum amongst early adopters, even though the technology remains unproven and not yet viable on the scale.

The carbon capture technology S-curve

Traditionally used as a static tool, the S-curve should instead serve as a dynamic framework, especially for capital-intensive technologies like carbon capture. Real-time changes in policy, cost structures, and infrastructure can significantly shift the pace of adoption. By applying the S-curve iteratively, stakeholders can explore multiple scenarios and better anticipate inflection points. This enables more resilient planning, particularly when projecting outcomes in high-stakes, uncertain markets.

“CCUS is really stepping up as a smart solution in the push for net zero, especially in hard-to-abate industries like cement. Amine-based methods are leading the way now, but enzymatic and membrane technologies are catching up fast. Thanks to tech breakthroughs and a maturing CO₂ value chain, costs are expected to drop by over 50% before 2040, making CCUS more feasible and a go-to approach for reaching net zero.”

— Senior Advisor, CCUS Technology Provider