Executive summary

Situation: A global energy supermajor sought to allocate product and innovation capital to monetize captured CO2, aiming to establish a business unit for low-carbon products. The selected pathways needed to align with its existing assets, produce marketable molecules, and operate in a relatively open competitive landscape. 

Challenge: CO2 utilization remains highly nascent, with weak market signals and most pathways still in the research phase, lacking project-level success stories. The client faced limited innovation spending and required a highly selective approach to support its e-fuels and e-chemicals strategy. 

Solution: FutureScaleX (FSX) developed a capital allocation strategy, evaluating technology readiness levels (TRL), economics, patent landscapes, and R&D investment trends for six technical pathways and ten CO2 products. FSX also identified emerging startups in each pathway for potential collaboration opportunities. 

Impact:
  • Classified CO2 utilization pathways into Horizon 1, 2, and 3 opportunities. 
  • Recommended region-specific best practices and budget allocation strategies 
  • Built a pipeline of emerging startups for potential partnerships and collaborations. 
Assessing CO2 utilization pathways to establish a booming e-fuels business

 

Business Context: Our client, an energy supermajor, is committed to the energy transition and views low carbon fuels as a key tool for long-term diversification. With ambitious emission reduction targets, the company is actively investing in emerging technologies such as carbon capture, green hydrogen, and biofuels.

To advance its e-fuels strategy, the client engaged with FSX to analyze the landscape of CO2 conversion (CCU) pathways and determine where to allocate innovation funds across the value chain. The ultimate objective was to capture CO2 emissions from its fossil fuel operations and convert them into monetizable products, supporting the growth of its e-fuels business.

 

Business Requirement: To shape its R&D and innovation strategy in CO2 conversion, the client sought comprehensive insights in three critical areas:

    • Technical Feasibility: Assess the technology readiness levels (TRL) and commercialization readiness levels (CRL) of CO2 pathways and end products, including e-fuels, methanol, and carbon monoxide (CO).
    • Competitive Landscape: Analyze the positioning of competing oil and gas players in the CCU ecosystem, highlighting their strategic focus areas and potential blind spots.
    • Partnership Ecosystem: Build a pipeline of promising startups and academic research institutions for potential technology collaborations.

To meet the client’s multi-faceted objectives, FSX developed a holistic framework to direct its innovation capital allocation.

 

Key deliverables
  • Delivered a comprehensive assessment of CCU pathways, mapping each by technology readiness levels (TRL), R&D intensity, and a CO2 product roadmap across Horizon 1, 2, and 3 opportunity timeframes.
  • Provided in-depth analysis of emerging trends and competitor research priorities in CO2 utilization and methanol conversion, aligned with broader corporate objectives.
  • Identified and presented a layout of hypercompetitive technology segments and underexplored white spaces to guide the client’s innovation budget allocation.
  • Evaluated O&G collaborations across the CCU value chain, including partnerships with green hydrogen suppliers, chemical companies, catalyst providers, and other key stakeholders.
The FSX solution framework FSX utilizes a 3-step process to conduct technical feasibility, peer benchmarking, and partner ecosystem development.
Assess
key-learning
Step 1:

Technology Landscape & Peer Identification

  • Global CO2 policies: Completed a foundational study of policies and regulations favorable for CCU.
  • CCU pathways: Prepared robust overview of all conversion pathways (e.g., CO2 electrolysis) and the subsequent end products (e.g., methanol). 
  • Competitor universe setup: Screened energy and industry peers who are direct competitors to the client and active in CO2 utilization. 



Step 2:

TRL Assessment & Peer Benchmarking

  • TRL screening: Built a pipeline of ongoing CCUS projects to ascertain TRLs; shortlisted pathways and end products for deeper study. 
  • Competitor analysis: Investigated competing O&G players activity in IP publishing, academic work, and R&D capital allocation.  
  • Benchmark: Compared positioning of client against competing peers; identified areas of agreement and areas of disconnect.  
Most preferred companies
Model of engagement
Viability of GTM strategy
Entry barriers & success factors

Credibility of market claims
Action
Step 3:

Startup & Collaboration Analysis

Partnership ecosystem
  • Assessed various joint ventures and technology partnerships, led by O&G players in CCU.
Startup engagement
  • Identified collaborations and investments of O&G companies in CCU startups. 
Market approach
  • Analyzed research collaborations with universities and grants provided to academic institutions.

FSX sample output

CO2 patent publishing
CO2 O&G tech players
CO2 utilization CCUS player exhibits

The FSX methodology

Sustainable-growth-as-a-service: A systems-level approach that connects the dots, identifying critical tipping points and solutions that matter. 

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Policy & Regulation

Carrots vs. Sticks

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Innovation & Technology

Potential vs. Scale

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Techno-economics

Tipping points vs. ROI

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Supply Chain

Technical vs. Capital Readiness

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Digitalization

Time-to-market vs. Payback Period

Partnership & Ecosystem

Risk vs. Reward

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